There is no doubt that French army uniforms of the period between the end of the Franco-Prussian War (1871) to the start of The Great War (1914) are something of a puzzle. As a period of relative peace this era is not covered by the usual reference pamphlets - like Osprey's Men at Arms - and what useful material that might exist is - as you might expect - written in French!
Well, hopefully, I finally solved the mystery of this particular toy soldier when I came across a very nice set of French watercolours online. They depicted the history of the 147th Infantry Regiment of Sedan and the example of a soldier of 1905 caught my eye...
Left: Soldier of the 147th Infantry Regiment (1900-1905). Raiment: shorter tunic with red collar and a row of buttons with flap facing in 1899 that lasted until the first world war. He is equipped with a Lebel rifle.
This illustration is the closest thing I have found that is similar to Black Hat's French toy soldiers. The Black Hat toy doesn't have the webbing kit or back-pack but otherwise is a nice representation of the 1905 pattern French infantry uniform.